Sea level rise in Osaka: how high will the water get?
Under intermediate emissions, sea level at Osaka is projected to rise about 37 cm by 2050 and 90 cm by 2100 compared with 1995–2014 — or 116 cm if emissions stay very high. That is 34 cm more than the global average, mostly because the land around Osaka is sinking (subsidence), which adds to the rise in the ocean itself.
Projected sea level rise at Osaka, 2020–2150 (cm vs 1995–2014)
| Year | Low | Intermediate | Very high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2030 | +19 cm (15–22) | +19 cm (15–23) | +19 cm (16–23) |
| 2050 | +35 cm (29–43) | +37 cm (31–45) | +40 cm (34–49) |
| 2070 | +52 cm (44–64) | +56 cm (48–70) | +66 cm (56–81) |
| 2100 | +77 cm (62–99) | +90 cm (73–116) | +116 cm (96–147) |
| 2150 | +121 cm (93–159) | +146 cm (113–194) | +194 cm (150–259) |
What it means for Osaka
The average rise is only part of the story. What people notice first is flooding: higher seas let ordinary high tides and storm surges reach further inland. The IPCC projects that extreme sea levels which used to occur once a century will happen at least once a year at more than half of the world's tide gauge locations by 2100.
Sea level will keep rising for centuries even after emissions stop, because the deep ocean keeps warming and ice sheets keep melting. Under very high emissions, rises well beyond these ranges cannot be ruled out if parts of the Antarctic ice sheet become unstable — see tipping points.
To see which streets are at risk, use a local flood map: the projections here can be explored station by station in the NASA Sea Level Projection Tool.
Osaka climate in 2050Global sea level todayAll coastal cities
Frequently asked questions
Will Osaka be underwater?
Not in the sense of the whole city disappearing this century, but the sea at Osaka is projected to rise about 90 cm by 2100 under intermediate emissions (likely range 73–116 cm), and about 116 cm under very high emissions. Low-lying districts face more frequent flooding from high tides and storm surges well before then; whether a specific street floods depends on local elevation and flood defences.
How much will sea level rise in Osaka by 2050?
About 37 cm (14 inches) compared with 1995–2014 under an intermediate scenario, with a likely range of 31–45 cm. Up to 2050 the emissions scenarios give similar results, because much of this rise is already locked in.
Why is sea level rise in Osaka different from the global average?
Projections at a single coast include vertical land motion (sinking or rising land), changes in ocean currents and the gravitational effects of melting ice sheets. That is 34 cm more than the global average, mostly because the land around Osaka is sinking (subsidence), which adds to the rise in the ocean itself.
Source: IPCC AR6 Sea Level Projections (Garner et al. 2021; Fox-Kemper et al. 2021), via the NASA Sea Level Projection Tool. Global averages: IPCC AR6 WG1 Table 9.9.
Licence: CC BY 4.0. Relative sea level change incl. vertical land motion, vs 1995–2014, medium confidence; likely range = 17th–83rd percentile.