2050 is closer than 2000. Children born today will be in their mid-twenties. Here is what the science says the world they live in will look like — and which parts are still up to us.
By Andreas Marshall · Last reviewed 17 October 2026 · Every claim is linked to its source below.
Around 2 °C warmer
The IPCC's five main scenarios run from very rapid emission cuts to a fossil-fuel-heavy future. By mid-century they are surprisingly close together — much of the next 25 years of warming is already in the pipeline.
Global warming in 2041–2060 by emissions scenario (°C above 1850–1900)
IPCC AR6 WG1 Table SPM.1: best estimate and very likely range.
The real fork in the road comes after 2050:
Global warming in 2081–2100 by emissions scenario (°C above 1850–1900)
IPCC AR6 WG1 Table SPM.1. Current policies ≈ 2.8 °C by 2100 according to the UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025.
Six snapshots of 2050
Heat
8.6–13.9×
How much more often a once-in-50-years heat extreme happens at 1.5–2 °C (IPCC AR6 SPM.6).
Sea level
+15–30cm
Global mean rise by 2050 vs 1995–2014, in all scenarios (IPCC AR6).
Arctic
Ice-free
Practically ice-free in September at least once before 2050 — in every scenario (IPCC AR6 B.2.5).
Coral reefs
−70 to −99%
Projected further decline at 1.5 °C and 2 °C respectively (IPCC SR1.5).
Migration
216million
Up to this many people could move within their own countries by 2050 without strong action (World Bank, Groundswell; 6 regions).
Health
250,000/yr
Additional deaths per year expected 2030–2050 from undernutrition, malaria, diarrhoea and heat stress alone (WHO).
What a summer could feel like
The IPCC finds that in some mid-latitude regions the hottest days warm by up to 1.5–2 times the rate of global warming — so a 2 °C world can mean peak summer days 3–4 °C hotter than pre-industrial. Heatwaves that were rare in the 20th century become a regular feature of summer; heavy downpours become more intense; and droughts affecting farmland become more frequent in regions such as the Mediterranean, southern Africa and western North America.
That does not mean every place becomes uninhabitable. It means more stress on the same systems at the same time — power grids during heatwaves, harvests during droughts, coastal cities during storm surges — and those with the least resources are hit hardest.
What it means
The world of 2050 is largely already decided: roughly 2 °C warmer, with more extreme heat, higher seas and a summer Arctic that is sometimes free of ice. The world of 2100 is not. Whether it settles near 1.5 °C or climbs past 3 °C depends on how quickly emissions fall in the coming decades.
Around 1.6 °C to 2.4 °C above pre-industrial levels on average over 2041–2060, depending on emissions (IPCC AR6 best estimates). In every scenario the IPCC assessed, the world is more likely than not to reach 1.5 °C in the near term.
Will 2050 be very different depending on what we do now?
Less than you might think, because the warming of the next two decades is largely locked in by past emissions. The big difference comes in the second half of the century: by 2081–2100 the IPCC's scenarios range from about 1.4 °C to 4.4 °C.
How much will sea level rise by 2050?
Roughly 15–30 cm above the 1995–2014 average, almost regardless of emissions, according to the IPCC. Higher seas will make coastal flooding much more frequent.
How many people will be affected by climate change in 2050?
The IPCC estimates that 3.3–3.6 billion people already live in contexts highly vulnerable to climate change. The World Bank projects up to 216 million people could be forced to move within their own countries by 2050 in a pessimistic scenario.
Is it too late to stop climate change?
It is too late to avoid all impacts, but not too late to decide how bad they get. Warming stops when CO₂ emissions reach net zero. Every tonne of CO₂ avoided reduces future warming, and the choices made this decade determine whether the world ends the century near 1.5 °C, or at 3 °C and above.