Addis Ababa in 2050: climate change in numbers
Addis Ababa has warmed 1.6 °C, comparing the last ten years (2016–2025) with 1951–1980 — faster than the world as a whole (+1.1 °C). By 2050, its climate is projected to feel like Kunming, China today.
2050 = 2040–2059 average, intermediate emissions (SSP2-4.5), median of CMIP6 climate models. “Today” = 1991–2020. Model range for average temperature: 16.5–17.4 °C.
Addis Ababa: average annual temperature, 1950–2025 (°C)
1950 → 2025. Addis Ababa's warming stripes: each stripe is one year's average temperature.
What Addis Ababa's climate will feel like
Matching temperature, heat extremes, frost days and rainfall against the current climate of more than 1,000 large cities, Addis Ababa's 2050 climate is closest to Kunming, China — about 7,000 km away.
| Addis Ababa today | Addis Ababa 2050 | Kunming today | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average temperature | 15.6 °C | 17.0 °C | 15.8 °C |
| Average daily high | 22.1 °C | 23.3 °C | 20.4 °C |
| Hottest day | 28 °C | 29 °C | 30 °C |
| Frost days | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Rainfall | 1,877 mm | 2,122 mm | 1,527 mm |
A year in Addis Ababa, day by day
Each square is one day of the year; the coloured squares are the days that cross the threshold in an average year.
What changes by 2050
- The average temperature rises a further 1.3 °C compared with 1991–2020 (model range 0.8–1.8 °C).
- Annual rainfall is projected to increase by about 12%, though precipitation projections are less certain than temperature.
Dangerous heat in Addis Ababa
Even by 2090 under very high emissions, Addis Ababa is not projected to have days with a heat index of 39 °C or more in a typical year. See where dangerous heat spreads worldwide.
Under high emissions
If emissions keep rising (SSP5-8.5), Addis Ababa would average 17.3 °C by 2040–2059, with a hottest day around 29 °C. By mid-century the scenarios are still close; the choices made now mostly decide what happens after 2050 — see the world in 2050.
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Frequently asked questions
How hot will Addis Ababa be in 2050?
Under an intermediate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), Addis Ababa's average annual temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at about 17.0 °C (range 16.5–17.4 °C across climate models), compared with 15.6 °C in 1991–2020. The hottest day of a typical year reaches about 29 °C (84 °F).
Is Addis Ababa getting hotter?
Yes. The last ten years (2016–2025) averaged 1.6 °C warmer than 1951–1980 in Addis Ababa, faster than the global average of 1.1 °C over the same period (Copernicus ERA5).
Which city will Addis Ababa feel like in 2050?
By 2040–2059, Addis Ababa's climate is projected to resemble the climate of Kunming, China today, based on temperature, heat extremes, frost and rainfall.
What would happen under high emissions?
Under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Addis Ababa's average temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at 17.3 °C and the hottest day at about 29 °C. The differences between scenarios grow much larger after 2050.
Sources: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CMIP6 0.25°, ERA5 0.25°); Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis (C3S/ECMWF); NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 (Thrasher et al. 2022); GeoNames
Method: Delta method: ERA5 1995–2014 + CMIP6 ensemble change 2040–2059 vs 1995–2014. Values are for the ~25 km grid cell containing the city and can differ from a single weather station, especially for coastal and mountain cities. Methodology · Download CSV
Licence: Derived from ERA5 (CC BY 4.0, Copernicus/ECMWF), CMIP6 via World Bank CCKP (CC BY-SA 4.0) and GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). City data on this site: CC BY-SA 4.0. · Generated 17 October 2026