Alexandria in 2050: climate change in numbers
Alexandria has warmed 1.1 °C, comparing the last ten years (2016–2025) with 1951–1980 — about as fast as the world as a whole (+1.1 °C). By 2050, it is heading for a climate that no large city has today.
2050 = 2040–2059 average, intermediate emissions (SSP2-4.5), median of CMIP6 climate models. “Today” = 1991–2020. Model range for average temperature: 21.6–22.7 °C.
Alexandria: average annual temperature, 1950–2025 (°C)
1950 → 2025. Alexandria's warming stripes: each stripe is one year's average temperature.
What Alexandria's climate will feel like
We compared Alexandria's projected 2050 climate with today's climate in more than 1,000 large cities. None is a close match; the nearest is Luanda, Angola. Scientists call this a novel climate: conditions the city's people, buildings and infrastructure have no local experience of.
| Alexandria today | Alexandria 2050 | Luanda today | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average temperature | 20.7 °C | 22.1 °C | 25.0 °C |
| Average daily high | 22.9 °C | 24.3 °C | 28.1 °C |
| Hottest day | 33 °C | 34 °C | 33 °C |
| Frost days | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rainfall | 194 mm | 166 mm | 404 mm |
A year in Alexandria, day by day
Each square is one day of the year; the coloured squares are the days that cross the threshold in an average year.
Days above 30 °C (86 °F) in Alexandria
Tropical nights in Alexandria (never cooler than 20 °C)
What changes by 2050
- The average temperature rises a further 1.4 °C compared with 1991–2020 (model range 0.9–2.0 °C).
- Days above 30 °C (86 °F) rise from about 6 a year (1991–2020) to about 43 by 2040–2059.
- Tropical nights — when it never cools below 20 °C — increase from about 159 to 183 a year, making heatwaves harder on health.
Dangerous heat in Alexandria
Days a year when the heat index — temperature and humidity combined — reaches 39 °C, the level the US National Weather Service calls Danger: 0 in 1995–2014, 0 by 2050 and 2 by 2090 under intermediate emissions, or 55 by 2090 if emissions keep rising. See where dangerous heat spreads worldwide.
Sea level at Alexandria
The sea at Alexandria is projected to rise about 25 cm by 2050 and 62 cm by 2100 (IPCC AR6, intermediate emissions). See the full sea level projection for Alexandria.
Under high emissions
If emissions keep rising (SSP5-8.5), Alexandria would average 22.6 °C by 2040–2059, with a hottest day around 35 °C and 66 days above 30 °C (86 °F) a year. By mid-century the scenarios are still close; the choices made now mostly decide what happens after 2050 — see the world in 2050.
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Frequently asked questions
How hot will Alexandria be in 2050?
Under an intermediate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), Alexandria's average annual temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at about 22.1 °C (range 21.6–22.7 °C across climate models), compared with 20.7 °C in 1991–2020. The hottest day of a typical year reaches about 34 °C (93 °F).
Is Alexandria getting hotter?
Yes. The last ten years (2016–2025) averaged 1.1 °C warmer than 1951–1980 in Alexandria, about as fast as the global average of 1.1 °C over the same period (Copernicus ERA5).
Which city will Alexandria feel like in 2050?
No large city today has a climate quite like Alexandria's projected 2050 climate. The closest match is Luanda, Angola, but the fit is loose — Alexandria is heading into a climate with no close equivalent among the world's large cities.
What would happen under high emissions?
Under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Alexandria's average temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at 22.6 °C and the hottest day at about 35 °C. The differences between scenarios grow much larger after 2050.
Sources: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CMIP6 0.25°, ERA5 0.25°); Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis (C3S/ECMWF); NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 (Thrasher et al. 2022); GeoNames
Method: Delta method: ERA5 1995–2014 + CMIP6 ensemble change 2040–2059 vs 1995–2014. Values are for the ~25 km grid cell containing the city and can differ from a single weather station, especially for coastal and mountain cities. Methodology · Download CSV
Licence: Derived from ERA5 (CC BY 4.0, Copernicus/ECMWF), CMIP6 via World Bank CCKP (CC BY-SA 4.0) and GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). City data on this site: CC BY-SA 4.0. · Generated 17 October 2026