Delhi in 2050: climate change in numbers
Delhi has warmed 0.1 °C, comparing the last ten years (2016–2025) with 1951–1980 — slower than the world as a whole (+1.1 °C). By 2050, its climate is projected to feel like Varanasi, India today.
2050 = 2040–2059 average, intermediate emissions (SSP2-4.5), median of CMIP6 climate models. “Today” = 1991–2020. Model range for average temperature: 25.5–26.7 °C.
Delhi: average annual temperature, 1950–2025 (°C)
1950 → 2025. Delhi's warming stripes: each stripe is one year's average temperature.
What Delhi's climate will feel like
Matching temperature, heat extremes, frost days and rainfall against the current climate of more than 1,000 large cities, Delhi's 2050 climate is closest to Varanasi, India — about 700 km away.
| Delhi today | Delhi 2050 | Varanasi today | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average temperature | 24.8 °C | 26.0 °C | 26.0 °C |
| Average daily high | 30.8 °C | 32.1 °C | 31.8 °C |
| Hottest day | 44 °C | 46 °C | 44 °C |
| Frost days | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rainfall | 714 mm | 810 mm | 984 mm |
A year in Delhi, day by day
Each square is one day of the year; the coloured squares are the days that cross the threshold in an average year.
Days above 35 °C (95 °F) in Delhi
Tropical nights in Delhi (never cooler than 20 °C)
Dangerous-heat days in Delhi (heat index ≥ 39 °C)
What changes by 2050
- The average temperature rises a further 1.3 °C compared with 1991–2020 (model range 0.8–1.9 °C).
- Days above 35 °C (95 °F) rise from about 101 a year (1991–2020) to about 124 by 2040–2059.
- Tropical nights — when it never cools below 20 °C — increase from about 190 to 206 a year, making heatwaves harder on health.
- Annual rainfall is projected to increase by about 12%, though precipitation projections are less certain than temperature.
Dangerous heat in Delhi
Days a year when the heat index — temperature and humidity combined — reaches 39 °C, the level the US National Weather Service calls Danger: 26 in 1995–2014, 62 by 2050 and 89 by 2090 under intermediate emissions, or 144 by 2090 if emissions keep rising. See where dangerous heat spreads worldwide.
Under high emissions
If emissions keep rising (SSP5-8.5), Delhi would average 26.6 °C by 2040–2059, with a hottest day around 46 °C and 132 days above 35 °C (95 °F) a year. By mid-century the scenarios are still close; the choices made now mostly decide what happens after 2050 — see the world in 2050.
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Frequently asked questions
How hot will Delhi be in 2050?
Under an intermediate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), Delhi's average annual temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at about 26.0 °C (range 25.5–26.7 °C across climate models), compared with 24.8 °C in 1991–2020. The hottest day of a typical year reaches about 46 °C (114 °F).
Is Delhi getting hotter?
Yes. The last ten years (2016–2025) averaged 0.1 °C warmer than 1951–1980 in Delhi, slower than the global average of 1.1 °C over the same period (Copernicus ERA5).
Which city will Delhi feel like in 2050?
By 2040–2059, Delhi's climate is projected to resemble the climate of Varanasi, India today, based on temperature, heat extremes, frost and rainfall.
What would happen under high emissions?
Under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Delhi's average temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at 26.6 °C and the hottest day at about 46 °C. The differences between scenarios grow much larger after 2050.
Sources: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CMIP6 0.25°, ERA5 0.25°); Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis (C3S/ECMWF); NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 (Thrasher et al. 2022); GeoNames
Method: Delta method: ERA5 1995–2014 + CMIP6 ensemble change 2040–2059 vs 1995–2014. Values are for the ~25 km grid cell containing the city and can differ from a single weather station, especially for coastal and mountain cities. Methodology · Download CSV
Licence: Derived from ERA5 (CC BY 4.0, Copernicus/ECMWF), CMIP6 via World Bank CCKP (CC BY-SA 4.0) and GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). City data on this site: CC BY-SA 4.0. · Generated 17 October 2026