Ibadan in 2050: climate change in numbers
Ibadan has warmed 1.6 °C, comparing the last ten years (2016–2025) with 1951–1980 — faster than the world as a whole (+1.1 °C). By 2050, its climate is projected to feel like Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam today.
2050 = 2040–2059 average, intermediate emissions (SSP2-4.5), median of CMIP6 climate models. “Today” = 1991–2020. Model range for average temperature: 26.8–27.8 °C.
Ibadan: average annual temperature, 1950–2025 (°C)
1950 → 2025. Ibadan's warming stripes: each stripe is one year's average temperature.
What Ibadan's climate will feel like
Matching temperature, heat extremes, frost days and rainfall against the current climate of more than 1,000 large cities, Ibadan's 2050 climate is closest to Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam — about 11,200 km away.
| Ibadan today | Ibadan 2050 | Ho Chi Minh City today | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average temperature | 26.1 °C | 27.2 °C | 27.6 °C |
| Average daily high | 30.8 °C | 31.8 °C | 31.8 °C |
| Hottest day | 37 °C | 38 °C | 37 °C |
| Frost days | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rainfall | 1,462 mm | 1,460 mm | 1,911 mm |
A year in Ibadan, day by day
Each square is one day of the year; the coloured squares are the days that cross the threshold in an average year.
Days above 35 °C (95 °F) in Ibadan
Tropical nights in Ibadan (never cooler than 20 °C)
Dangerous-heat days in Ibadan (heat index ≥ 39 °C)
What changes by 2050
- The average temperature rises a further 1.2 °C compared with 1991–2020 (model range 0.7–1.8 °C).
- Days above 35 °C (95 °F) rise from about 21 a year (1991–2020) to about 46 by 2040–2059.
Dangerous heat in Ibadan
Days a year when the heat index — temperature and humidity combined — reaches 39 °C, the level the US National Weather Service calls Danger: 0 in 1995–2014, 7 by 2050 and 25 by 2090 under intermediate emissions, or 154 by 2090 if emissions keep rising. See where dangerous heat spreads worldwide.
Under high emissions
If emissions keep rising (SSP5-8.5), Ibadan would average 27.6 °C by 2040–2059, with a hottest day around 39 °C and 57 days above 35 °C (95 °F) a year. By mid-century the scenarios are still close; the choices made now mostly decide what happens after 2050 — see the world in 2050.
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Frequently asked questions
How hot will Ibadan be in 2050?
Under an intermediate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), Ibadan's average annual temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at about 27.2 °C (range 26.8–27.8 °C across climate models), compared with 26.1 °C in 1991–2020. The hottest day of a typical year reaches about 38 °C (101 °F).
Is Ibadan getting hotter?
Yes. The last ten years (2016–2025) averaged 1.6 °C warmer than 1951–1980 in Ibadan, faster than the global average of 1.1 °C over the same period (Copernicus ERA5).
Which city will Ibadan feel like in 2050?
By 2040–2059, Ibadan's climate is projected to resemble the climate of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam today, based on temperature, heat extremes, frost and rainfall.
What would happen under high emissions?
Under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Ibadan's average temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at 27.6 °C and the hottest day at about 39 °C. The differences between scenarios grow much larger after 2050.
Sources: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CMIP6 0.25°, ERA5 0.25°); Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis (C3S/ECMWF); NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 (Thrasher et al. 2022); GeoNames
Method: Delta method: ERA5 1995–2014 + CMIP6 ensemble change 2040–2059 vs 1995–2014. Values are for the ~25 km grid cell containing the city and can differ from a single weather station, especially for coastal and mountain cities. Methodology · Download CSV
Licence: Derived from ERA5 (CC BY 4.0, Copernicus/ECMWF), CMIP6 via World Bank CCKP (CC BY-SA 4.0) and GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). City data on this site: CC BY-SA 4.0. · Generated 17 October 2026