Lisbon in 2050: climate change in numbers
Lisbon has warmed 0.9 °C, comparing the last ten years (2016–2025) with 1951–1980 — about as fast as the world as a whole (+1.1 °C). By 2050, its climate is projected to feel like Gqeberha, South Africa today.
2050 = 2040–2059 average, intermediate emissions (SSP2-4.5), median of CMIP6 climate models. “Today” = 1991–2020. Model range for average temperature: 16.8–17.8 °C.
Lisbon: average annual temperature, 1950–2025 (°C)
1950 → 2025. Lisbon's warming stripes: each stripe is one year's average temperature.
What Lisbon's climate will feel like
Matching temperature, heat extremes, frost days and rainfall against the current climate of more than 1,000 large cities, Lisbon's 2050 climate is closest to Gqeberha, South Africa — about 8,800 km away.
| Lisbon today | Lisbon 2050 | Gqeberha today | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average temperature | 16.2 °C | 17.3 °C | 18.2 °C |
| Average daily high | 18.9 °C | 20.0 °C | 21.2 °C |
| Hottest day | 31 °C | 32 °C | 32 °C |
| Frost days | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rainfall | 596 mm | 573 mm | 570 mm |
A year in Lisbon, day by day
Each square is one day of the year; the coloured squares are the days that cross the threshold in an average year.
Days above 30 °C (86 °F) in Lisbon
Tropical nights in Lisbon (never cooler than 20 °C)
What changes by 2050
- The average temperature rises a further 1.1 °C compared with 1991–2020 (model range 0.6–1.6 °C).
- Days above 30 °C (86 °F) stay relatively rare: about 2 a year today and 4 by 2040–2059.
- Tropical nights — when it never cools below 20 °C — increase from about 6 to 22 a year, making heatwaves harder on health.
- Annual rainfall is projected to decrease by about 11%, though precipitation projections are less certain than temperature.
Dangerous heat in Lisbon
Even by 2090 under very high emissions, Lisbon is not projected to have days with a heat index of 39 °C or more in a typical year. See where dangerous heat spreads worldwide.
Sea level at Lisbon
The sea at Lisbon is projected to rise about 23 cm by 2050 and 59 cm by 2100 (IPCC AR6, intermediate emissions). See the full sea level projection for Lisbon.
Under high emissions
If emissions keep rising (SSP5-8.5), Lisbon would average 17.6 °C by 2040–2059, with a hottest day around 33 °C and 5 days above 30 °C (86 °F) a year. By mid-century the scenarios are still close; the choices made now mostly decide what happens after 2050 — see the world in 2050.
More places
Compare Lisbon with…Climate change in PortugalMadridCasablancaBarcelonaParis
Frequently asked questions
How hot will Lisbon be in 2050?
Under an intermediate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), Lisbon's average annual temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at about 17.3 °C (range 16.8–17.8 °C across climate models), compared with 16.2 °C in 1991–2020. The hottest day of a typical year reaches about 32 °C (90 °F).
Is Lisbon getting hotter?
Yes. The last ten years (2016–2025) averaged 0.9 °C warmer than 1951–1980 in Lisbon, about as fast as the global average of 1.1 °C over the same period (Copernicus ERA5).
Which city will Lisbon feel like in 2050?
By 2040–2059, Lisbon's climate is projected to resemble the climate of Gqeberha, South Africa today, based on temperature, heat extremes, frost and rainfall.
What would happen under high emissions?
Under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Lisbon's average temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at 17.6 °C and the hottest day at about 33 °C. The differences between scenarios grow much larger after 2050.
Sources: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CMIP6 0.25°, ERA5 0.25°); Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis (C3S/ECMWF); NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 (Thrasher et al. 2022); GeoNames
Method: Delta method: ERA5 1995–2014 + CMIP6 ensemble change 2040–2059 vs 1995–2014. Values are for the ~25 km grid cell containing the city and can differ from a single weather station, especially for coastal and mountain cities. Methodology · Download CSV
Licence: Derived from ERA5 (CC BY 4.0, Copernicus/ECMWF), CMIP6 via World Bank CCKP (CC BY-SA 4.0) and GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). City data on this site: CC BY-SA 4.0. · Generated 17 October 2026