Manila in 2050: climate change in numbers
Manila has warmed 0.9 °C, comparing the last ten years (2016–2025) with 1951–1980 — about as fast as the world as a whole (+1.1 °C). By 2050, its climate is projected to feel like Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam today.
2050 = 2040–2059 average, intermediate emissions (SSP2-4.5), median of CMIP6 climate models. “Today” = 1991–2020. Model range for average temperature: 28.5–29.4 °C.
Manila: average annual temperature, 1950–2025 (°C)
1950 → 2025. Manila's warming stripes: each stripe is one year's average temperature.
What Manila's climate will feel like
Matching temperature, heat extremes, frost days and rainfall against the current climate of more than 1,000 large cities, Manila's 2050 climate is closest to Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam — about 1,600 km away.
| Manila today | Manila 2050 | Ho Chi Minh City today | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average temperature | 27.9 °C | 28.9 °C | 27.6 °C |
| Average daily high | 30.9 °C | 31.9 °C | 31.8 °C |
| Hottest day | 36 °C | 37 °C | 37 °C |
| Frost days | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rainfall | 1,683 mm | 1,786 mm | 1,911 mm |
A year in Manila, day by day
Each square is one day of the year; the coloured squares are the days that cross the threshold in an average year.
Days above 35 °C (95 °F) in Manila
Tropical nights in Manila (never cooler than 20 °C)
Dangerous-heat days in Manila (heat index ≥ 39 °C)
What changes by 2050
- The average temperature rises a further 1.0 °C compared with 1991–2020 (model range 0.6–1.4 °C).
- Days above 35 °C (95 °F) rise from about 9 a year (1991–2020) to about 28 by 2040–2059.
- Every night is already a tropical night (above 20 °C), so night-time heat stress rises with no cool season to recover in.
- Annual rainfall is projected to increase by about 6%, though precipitation projections are less certain than temperature.
Dangerous heat in Manila
Days a year when the heat index — temperature and humidity combined — reaches 39 °C, the level the US National Weather Service calls Danger: 0 in 1995–2014, 18 by 2050 and 78 by 2090 under intermediate emissions, or 228 by 2090 if emissions keep rising. See where dangerous heat spreads worldwide.
Sea level at Manila
The sea at Manila is projected to rise about 46 cm by 2050 and 112 cm by 2100 (IPCC AR6, intermediate emissions). See the full sea level projection for Manila.
Under high emissions
If emissions keep rising (SSP5-8.5), Manila would average 29.3 °C by 2040–2059, with a hottest day around 37 °C and 43 days above 35 °C (95 °F) a year. By mid-century the scenarios are still close; the choices made now mostly decide what happens after 2050 — see the world in 2050.
More places
Compare Manila with…Climate change in the PhilippinesHong KongTaipeiHo Chi Minh CityHanoi
Frequently asked questions
How hot will Manila be in 2050?
Under an intermediate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), Manila's average annual temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at about 28.9 °C (range 28.5–29.4 °C across climate models), compared with 27.9 °C in 1991–2020. The hottest day of a typical year reaches about 37 °C (99 °F).
Is Manila getting hotter?
Yes. The last ten years (2016–2025) averaged 0.9 °C warmer than 1951–1980 in Manila, about as fast as the global average of 1.1 °C over the same period (Copernicus ERA5).
Which city will Manila feel like in 2050?
By 2040–2059, Manila's climate is projected to resemble the climate of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam today, based on temperature, heat extremes, frost and rainfall.
What would happen under high emissions?
Under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Manila's average temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at 29.3 °C and the hottest day at about 37 °C. The differences between scenarios grow much larger after 2050.
Sources: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CMIP6 0.25°, ERA5 0.25°); Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis (C3S/ECMWF); NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 (Thrasher et al. 2022); GeoNames
Method: Delta method: ERA5 1995–2014 + CMIP6 ensemble change 2040–2059 vs 1995–2014. Values are for the ~25 km grid cell containing the city and can differ from a single weather station, especially for coastal and mountain cities. Methodology · Download CSV
Licence: Derived from ERA5 (CC BY 4.0, Copernicus/ECMWF), CMIP6 via World Bank CCKP (CC BY-SA 4.0) and GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). City data on this site: CC BY-SA 4.0. · Generated 17 October 2026