New Orleans in 2050: climate change in numbers
New Orleans has warmed 1.2 °C, comparing the last ten years (2016–2025) with 1951–1980 — about as fast as the world as a whole (+1.1 °C). By 2050, its climate is projected to feel like Nanning, China today.
2050 = 2040–2059 average, intermediate emissions (SSP2-4.5), median of CMIP6 climate models. “Today” = 1991–2020. Model range for average temperature: 21.8–22.7 °C.
New Orleans: average annual temperature, 1950–2025 (°C)
1950 → 2025. New Orleans's warming stripes: each stripe is one year's average temperature.
What New Orleans's climate will feel like
Matching temperature, heat extremes, frost days and rainfall against the current climate of more than 1,000 large cities, New Orleans's 2050 climate is closest to Nanning, China — about 13,800 km away.
| New Orleans today | New Orleans 2050 | Nanning today | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average temperature | 20.9 °C | 22.2 °C | 22.4 °C |
| Average daily high | 24.4 °C | 25.8 °C | 26.1 °C |
| Hottest day | 34 °C | 36 °C | 37 °C |
| Frost days | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Rainfall | 1,407 mm | 1,370 mm | 1,662 mm |
A year in New Orleans, day by day
Each square is one day of the year; the coloured squares are the days that cross the threshold in an average year.
Days above 30 °C (86 °F) in New Orleans
Tropical nights in New Orleans (never cooler than 20 °C)
Dangerous-heat days in New Orleans (heat index ≥ 39 °C)
What changes by 2050
- The average temperature rises a further 1.3 °C compared with 1991–2020 (model range 0.9–1.8 °C).
- Days above 30 °C (86 °F) rise from about 76 a year (1991–2020) to about 118 by 2040–2059.
- Tropical nights — when it never cools below 20 °C — increase from about 170 to 191 a year, making heatwaves harder on health.
Dangerous heat in New Orleans
Days a year when the heat index — temperature and humidity combined — reaches 39 °C, the level the US National Weather Service calls Danger: 0 in 1995–2014, 8 by 2050 and 29 by 2090 under intermediate emissions, or 101 by 2090 if emissions keep rising. See where dangerous heat spreads worldwide.
Sea level at New Orleans
The sea at New Orleans is projected to rise about 49 cm by 2050 and 112 cm by 2100 (IPCC AR6, intermediate emissions). See the full sea level projection for New Orleans.
Under high emissions
If emissions keep rising (SSP5-8.5), New Orleans would average 22.7 °C by 2040–2059, with a hottest day around 37 °C and 125 days above 30 °C (86 °F) a year. By mid-century the scenarios are still close; the choices made now mostly decide what happens after 2050 — see the world in 2050.
More places
Compare New Orleans with…Climate change in the United StatesHoustonAtlantaDallasMiami
Frequently asked questions
How hot will New Orleans be in 2050?
Under an intermediate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), New Orleans's average annual temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at about 22.2 °C (range 21.8–22.7 °C across climate models), compared with 20.9 °C in 1991–2020. The hottest day of a typical year reaches about 36 °C (98 °F).
Is New Orleans getting hotter?
Yes. The last ten years (2016–2025) averaged 1.2 °C warmer than 1951–1980 in New Orleans, about as fast as the global average of 1.1 °C over the same period (Copernicus ERA5).
Which city will New Orleans feel like in 2050?
By 2040–2059, New Orleans's climate is projected to resemble the climate of Nanning, China today, based on temperature, heat extremes, frost and rainfall.
What would happen under high emissions?
Under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), New Orleans's average temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at 22.7 °C and the hottest day at about 37 °C. The differences between scenarios grow much larger after 2050.
Sources: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CMIP6 0.25°, ERA5 0.25°); Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis (C3S/ECMWF); NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 (Thrasher et al. 2022); GeoNames
Method: Delta method: ERA5 1995–2014 + CMIP6 ensemble change 2040–2059 vs 1995–2014. Values are for the ~25 km grid cell containing the city and can differ from a single weather station, especially for coastal and mountain cities. Methodology · Download CSV
Licence: Derived from ERA5 (CC BY 4.0, Copernicus/ECMWF), CMIP6 via World Bank CCKP (CC BY-SA 4.0) and GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). City data on this site: CC BY-SA 4.0. · Generated 17 October 2026