Toronto in 2050: climate change in numbers
Toronto has warmed 1.4 °C, comparing the last ten years (2016–2025) with 1951–1980 — faster than the world as a whole (+1.1 °C). By 2050, its climate is projected to feel like Chicago, United States today.
2050 = 2040–2059 average, intermediate emissions (SSP2-4.5), median of CMIP6 climate models. “Today” = 1991–2020. Model range for average temperature: 10.0–11.3 °C.
Toronto: average annual temperature, 1950–2025 (°C)
1950 → 2025. Toronto's warming stripes: each stripe is one year's average temperature.
What Toronto's climate will feel like
Matching temperature, heat extremes, frost days and rainfall against the current climate of more than 1,000 large cities, Toronto's 2050 climate is closest to Chicago, United States — about 700 km away.
| Toronto today | Toronto 2050 | Chicago today | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average temperature | 8.5 °C | 10.7 °C | 10.5 °C |
| Average daily high | 12.9 °C | 15.0 °C | 14.7 °C |
| Hottest day | 33 °C | 35 °C | 34 °C |
| Frost days | 122 | 100 | 102 |
| Rainfall | 848 mm | 892 mm | 1,042 mm |
A year in Toronto, day by day
Each square is one day of the year; the coloured squares are the days that cross the threshold in an average year.
Days above 30 °C (86 °F) in Toronto
Tropical nights in Toronto (never cooler than 20 °C)
Frost days in Toronto (below 0 °C)
What changes by 2050
- The average temperature rises a further 2.2 °C compared with 1991–2020 (model range 1.5–2.8 °C).
- Days above 30 °C (86 °F) rise from about 10 a year (1991–2020) to about 27 by 2040–2059.
- Tropical nights — when it never cools below 20 °C — increase from about 13 to 31 a year, making heatwaves harder on health.
- Frost days fall from about 122 to 100 a year: shorter, milder winters.
- Annual rainfall is projected to increase by about 6%, though precipitation projections are less certain than temperature.
Dangerous heat in Toronto
Days a year when the heat index — temperature and humidity combined — reaches 39 °C, the level the US National Weather Service calls Danger: 0 in 1995–2014, 0 by 2050 and 0 by 2090 under intermediate emissions, or 1 by 2090 if emissions keep rising. See where dangerous heat spreads worldwide.
Under high emissions
If emissions keep rising (SSP5-8.5), Toronto would average 11.2 °C by 2040–2059, with a hottest day around 36 °C and 35 days above 30 °C (86 °F) a year. By mid-century the scenarios are still close; the choices made now mostly decide what happens after 2050 — see the world in 2050.
More places
Compare Toronto with…Climate change in CanadaMontrealNew York CityWashingtonBoston
Frequently asked questions
How hot will Toronto be in 2050?
Under an intermediate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), Toronto's average annual temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at about 10.7 °C (range 10.0–11.3 °C across climate models), compared with 8.5 °C in 1991–2020. The hottest day of a typical year reaches about 35 °C (96 °F).
Is Toronto getting hotter?
Yes. The last ten years (2016–2025) averaged 1.4 °C warmer than 1951–1980 in Toronto, faster than the global average of 1.1 °C over the same period (Copernicus ERA5).
Which city will Toronto feel like in 2050?
By 2040–2059, Toronto's climate is projected to resemble the climate of Chicago, United States today, based on temperature, heat extremes, frost and rainfall.
What would happen under high emissions?
Under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Toronto's average temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at 11.2 °C and the hottest day at about 36 °C. The differences between scenarios grow much larger after 2050.
Sources: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CMIP6 0.25°, ERA5 0.25°); Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis (C3S/ECMWF); NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 (Thrasher et al. 2022); GeoNames
Method: Delta method: ERA5 1995–2014 + CMIP6 ensemble change 2040–2059 vs 1995–2014. Values are for the ~25 km grid cell containing the city and can differ from a single weather station, especially for coastal and mountain cities. Methodology · Download CSV
Licence: Derived from ERA5 (CC BY 4.0, Copernicus/ECMWF), CMIP6 via World Bank CCKP (CC BY-SA 4.0) and GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). City data on this site: CC BY-SA 4.0. · Generated 17 October 2026