Yangon in 2050: climate change in numbers
Yangon has warmed 1.3 °C, comparing the last ten years (2016–2025) with 1951–1980 — about as fast as the world as a whole (+1.1 °C). By 2050, it is heading for a climate that no large city has today.
2050 = 2040–2059 average, intermediate emissions (SSP2-4.5), median of CMIP6 climate models. “Today” = 1991–2020. Model range for average temperature: 28.3–29.2 °C.
Yangon: average annual temperature, 1950–2025 (°C)
1950 → 2025. Yangon's warming stripes: each stripe is one year's average temperature.
What Yangon's climate will feel like
We compared Yangon's projected 2050 climate with today's climate in more than 1,000 large cities. None is a close match; the nearest is Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Scientists call this a novel climate: conditions the city's people, buildings and infrastructure have no local experience of.
| Yangon today | Yangon 2050 | Ho Chi Minh City today | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average temperature | 27.7 °C | 28.9 °C | 27.6 °C |
| Average daily high | 32.9 °C | 34.0 °C | 31.8 °C |
| Hottest day | 40 °C | 42 °C | 37 °C |
| Frost days | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rainfall | 2,370 mm | 2,666 mm | 1,911 mm |
A year in Yangon, day by day
Each square is one day of the year; the coloured squares are the days that cross the threshold in an average year.
Days above 35 °C (95 °F) in Yangon
Tropical nights in Yangon (never cooler than 20 °C)
Dangerous-heat days in Yangon (heat index ≥ 39 °C)
What changes by 2050
- The average temperature rises a further 1.2 °C compared with 1991–2020 (model range 0.6–1.5 °C).
- Days above 35 °C (95 °F) rise from about 80 a year (1991–2020) to about 101 by 2040–2059.
- Tropical nights — when it never cools below 20 °C — increase from about 308 to 336 a year, making heatwaves harder on health.
- Annual rainfall is projected to increase by about 11%, though precipitation projections are less certain than temperature.
Dangerous heat in Yangon
Days a year when the heat index — temperature and humidity combined — reaches 39 °C, the level the US National Weather Service calls Danger: 4 in 1995–2014, 44 by 2050 and 112 by 2090 under intermediate emissions, or 240 by 2090 if emissions keep rising. See where dangerous heat spreads worldwide.
Sea level at Yangon
The sea at Yangon is projected to rise about 27 cm by 2050 and 71 cm by 2100 (IPCC AR6, intermediate emissions). See the full sea level projection for Yangon.
Under high emissions
If emissions keep rising (SSP5-8.5), Yangon would average 29.3 °C by 2040–2059, with a hottest day around 42 °C and 112 days above 35 °C (95 °F) a year. By mid-century the scenarios are still close; the choices made now mostly decide what happens after 2050 — see the world in 2050.
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Frequently asked questions
How hot will Yangon be in 2050?
Under an intermediate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), Yangon's average annual temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at about 28.9 °C (range 28.3–29.2 °C across climate models), compared with 27.7 °C in 1991–2020. The hottest day of a typical year reaches about 42 °C (107 °F).
Is Yangon getting hotter?
Yes. The last ten years (2016–2025) averaged 1.3 °C warmer than 1951–1980 in Yangon, about as fast as the global average of 1.1 °C over the same period (Copernicus ERA5).
Which city will Yangon feel like in 2050?
No large city today has a climate quite like Yangon's projected 2050 climate. The closest match is Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, but the fit is loose — Yangon is heading into a climate with no close equivalent among the world's large cities.
What would happen under high emissions?
Under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Yangon's average temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at 29.3 °C and the hottest day at about 42 °C. The differences between scenarios grow much larger after 2050.
Sources: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CMIP6 0.25°, ERA5 0.25°); Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis (C3S/ECMWF); NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 (Thrasher et al. 2022); GeoNames
Method: Delta method: ERA5 1995–2014 + CMIP6 ensemble change 2040–2059 vs 1995–2014. Values are for the ~25 km grid cell containing the city and can differ from a single weather station, especially for coastal and mountain cities. Methodology · Download CSV
Licence: Derived from ERA5 (CC BY 4.0, Copernicus/ECMWF), CMIP6 via World Bank CCKP (CC BY-SA 4.0) and GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). City data on this site: CC BY-SA 4.0. · Generated 17 October 2026