Auckland in 2050: climate change in numbers
Auckland has warmed 1.0 °C, comparing the last ten years (2016–2025) with 1951–1980 — about as fast as the world as a whole (+1.1 °C). By 2050, its climate is projected to feel like Montevideo, Uruguay today.
2050 = 2040–2059 average, intermediate emissions (SSP2-4.5), median of CMIP6 climate models. “Today” = 1991–2020. Model range for average temperature: 16.4–17.3 °C.
Auckland: average annual temperature, 1950–2025 (°C)
1950 → 2025. Auckland's warming stripes: each stripe is one year's average temperature.
What Auckland's climate will feel like
Matching temperature, heat extremes, frost days and rainfall against the current climate of more than 1,000 large cities, Auckland's 2050 climate is closest to Montevideo, Uruguay — about 10,500 km away.
| Auckland today | Auckland 2050 | Montevideo today | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average temperature | 15.8 °C | 16.8 °C | 16.6 °C |
| Average daily high | 18.0 °C | 19.0 °C | 18.2 °C |
| Hottest day | 25 °C | 26 °C | 28 °C |
| Frost days | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rainfall | 1,112 mm | 1,142 mm | 1,150 mm |
A year in Auckland, day by day
Each square is one day of the year; the coloured squares are the days that cross the threshold in an average year.
Tropical nights in Auckland (never cooler than 20 °C)
What changes by 2050
- The average temperature rises a further 1.0 °C compared with 1991–2020 (model range 0.6–1.5 °C).
- Tropical nights — when it never cools below 20 °C — increase from about 8 to 23 a year, making heatwaves harder on health.
Dangerous heat in Auckland
Even by 2090 under very high emissions, Auckland is not projected to have days with a heat index of 39 °C or more in a typical year. See where dangerous heat spreads worldwide.
Sea level at Auckland
The sea at Auckland is projected to rise about 22 cm by 2050 and 57 cm by 2100 (IPCC AR6, intermediate emissions). See the full sea level projection for Auckland.
Under high emissions
If emissions keep rising (SSP5-8.5), Auckland would average 17.2 °C by 2040–2059, with a hottest day around 26 °C. By mid-century the scenarios are still close; the choices made now mostly decide what happens after 2050 — see the world in 2050.
More places
Compare Auckland with…Climate change in New ZealandSydneyBrisbaneMelbournePerth
Frequently asked questions
How hot will Auckland be in 2050?
Under an intermediate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), Auckland's average annual temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at about 16.8 °C (range 16.4–17.3 °C across climate models), compared with 15.8 °C in 1991–2020. The hottest day of a typical year reaches about 26 °C (79 °F).
Is Auckland getting hotter?
Yes. The last ten years (2016–2025) averaged 1.0 °C warmer than 1951–1980 in Auckland, about as fast as the global average of 1.1 °C over the same period (Copernicus ERA5).
Which city will Auckland feel like in 2050?
By 2040–2059, Auckland's climate is projected to resemble the climate of Montevideo, Uruguay today, based on temperature, heat extremes, frost and rainfall.
What would happen under high emissions?
Under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Auckland's average temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at 17.2 °C and the hottest day at about 26 °C. The differences between scenarios grow much larger after 2050.
Sources: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CMIP6 0.25°, ERA5 0.25°); Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis (C3S/ECMWF); NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 (Thrasher et al. 2022); GeoNames
Method: Delta method: ERA5 1995–2014 + CMIP6 ensemble change 2040–2059 vs 1995–2014. Values are for the ~25 km grid cell containing the city and can differ from a single weather station, especially for coastal and mountain cities. Methodology · Download CSV
Licence: Derived from ERA5 (CC BY 4.0, Copernicus/ECMWF), CMIP6 via World Bank CCKP (CC BY-SA 4.0) and GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). City data on this site: CC BY-SA 4.0. · Generated 17 October 2026