Sydney in 2050: climate change in numbers
Sydney has warmed 0.9 °C, comparing the last ten years (2016–2025) with 1951–1980 — about as fast as the world as a whole (+1.1 °C). By 2050, its climate is projected to feel like Buenos Aires, Argentina today.
2050 = 2040–2059 average, intermediate emissions (SSP2-4.5), median of CMIP6 climate models. “Today” = 1991–2020. Model range for average temperature: 18.7–19.7 °C.
Sydney: average annual temperature, 1950–2025 (°C)
1950 → 2025. Sydney's warming stripes: each stripe is one year's average temperature.
What Sydney's climate will feel like
Matching temperature, heat extremes, frost days and rainfall against the current climate of more than 1,000 large cities, Sydney's 2050 climate is closest to Buenos Aires, Argentina — about 11,800 km away.
| Sydney today | Sydney 2050 | Buenos Aires today | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average temperature | 18.0 °C | 19.1 °C | 17.3 °C |
| Average daily high | 20.4 °C | 21.5 °C | 20.6 °C |
| Hottest day | 32 °C | 33 °C | 33 °C |
| Frost days | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rainfall | 916 mm | 930 mm | 1,091 mm |
A year in Sydney, day by day
Each square is one day of the year; the coloured squares are the days that cross the threshold in an average year.
Days above 30 °C (86 °F) in Sydney
Tropical nights in Sydney (never cooler than 20 °C)
What changes by 2050
- The average temperature rises a further 1.1 °C compared with 1991–2020 (model range 0.7–1.7 °C).
- Days above 30 °C (86 °F) stay relatively rare: about 3 a year today and 6 by 2040–2059.
- Tropical nights — when it never cools below 20 °C — increase from about 61 to 97 a year, making heatwaves harder on health.
Dangerous heat in Sydney
Days a year when the heat index — temperature and humidity combined — reaches 39 °C, the level the US National Weather Service calls Danger: 0 in 1995–2014, 0 by 2050 and 0 by 2090 under intermediate emissions, or 1 by 2090 if emissions keep rising. See where dangerous heat spreads worldwide.
Sea level at Sydney
The sea at Sydney is projected to rise about 20 cm by 2050 and 53 cm by 2100 (IPCC AR6, intermediate emissions). See the full sea level projection for Sydney.
Under high emissions
If emissions keep rising (SSP5-8.5), Sydney would average 19.6 °C by 2040–2059, with a hottest day around 34 °C and 8 days above 30 °C (86 °F) a year. By mid-century the scenarios are still close; the choices made now mostly decide what happens after 2050 — see the world in 2050.
More places
Compare Sydney with…Climate change in AustraliaMelbourneBrisbaneAucklandPerth
Frequently asked questions
How hot will Sydney be in 2050?
Under an intermediate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), Sydney's average annual temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at about 19.1 °C (range 18.7–19.7 °C across climate models), compared with 18.0 °C in 1991–2020. The hottest day of a typical year reaches about 33 °C (92 °F).
Is Sydney getting hotter?
Yes. The last ten years (2016–2025) averaged 0.9 °C warmer than 1951–1980 in Sydney, about as fast as the global average of 1.1 °C over the same period (Copernicus ERA5).
Which city will Sydney feel like in 2050?
By 2040–2059, Sydney's climate is projected to resemble the climate of Buenos Aires, Argentina today, based on temperature, heat extremes, frost and rainfall.
What would happen under high emissions?
Under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Sydney's average temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at 19.6 °C and the hottest day at about 34 °C. The differences between scenarios grow much larger after 2050.
Sources: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CMIP6 0.25°, ERA5 0.25°); Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis (C3S/ECMWF); NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 (Thrasher et al. 2022); GeoNames
Method: Delta method: ERA5 1995–2014 + CMIP6 ensemble change 2040–2059 vs 1995–2014. Values are for the ~25 km grid cell containing the city and can differ from a single weather station, especially for coastal and mountain cities. Methodology · Download CSV
Licence: Derived from ERA5 (CC BY 4.0, Copernicus/ECMWF), CMIP6 via World Bank CCKP (CC BY-SA 4.0) and GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). City data on this site: CC BY-SA 4.0. · Generated 17 October 2026