Edinburgh in 2050: climate change in numbers
Edinburgh has warmed 1.4 °C, comparing the last ten years (2016–2025) with 1951–1980 — faster than the world as a whole (+1.1 °C). By 2050, its climate is projected to feel like London, United Kingdom today.
2050 = 2040–2059 average, intermediate emissions (SSP2-4.5), median of CMIP6 climate models. “Today” = 1991–2020. Model range for average temperature: 9.4–11.1 °C.
Edinburgh: average annual temperature, 1950–2025 (°C)
1950 → 2025. Edinburgh's warming stripes: each stripe is one year's average temperature.
What Edinburgh's climate will feel like
Matching temperature, heat extremes, frost days and rainfall against the current climate of more than 1,000 large cities, Edinburgh's 2050 climate is closest to London, United Kingdom — about 500 km away.
| Edinburgh today | Edinburgh 2050 | London today | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average temperature | 9.3 °C | 10.3 °C | 10.7 °C |
| Average daily high | 12.0 °C | 13.1 °C | 14.0 °C |
| Hottest day | 25 °C | 27 °C | 30 °C |
| Frost days | 27 | 19 | 28 |
| Rainfall | 876 mm | 889 mm | 704 mm |
A year in Edinburgh, day by day
Each square is one day of the year; the coloured squares are the days that cross the threshold in an average year.
Frost days in Edinburgh (below 0 °C)
What changes by 2050
- The average temperature rises a further 1.0 °C compared with 1991–2020 (model range 0.1–1.8 °C).
- Frost days fall from about 27 to 19 a year: shorter, milder winters.
Dangerous heat in Edinburgh
Even by 2090 under very high emissions, Edinburgh is not projected to have days with a heat index of 39 °C or more in a typical year. See where dangerous heat spreads worldwide.
Sea level at Edinburgh
The sea at Edinburgh is projected to rise about 19 cm by 2050 and 47 cm by 2100 (IPCC AR6, intermediate emissions). See the full sea level projection for Edinburgh.
Under high emissions
If emissions keep rising (SSP5-8.5), Edinburgh would average 10.6 °C by 2040–2059, with a hottest day around 27 °C. By mid-century the scenarios are still close; the choices made now mostly decide what happens after 2050 — see the world in 2050.
More places
Compare Edinburgh with…Climate change in the United KingdomManchesterDublinLondonAmsterdam
Frequently asked questions
How hot will Edinburgh be in 2050?
Under an intermediate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), Edinburgh's average annual temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at about 10.3 °C (range 9.4–11.1 °C across climate models), compared with 9.3 °C in 1991–2020. The hottest day of a typical year reaches about 27 °C (80 °F).
Is Edinburgh getting hotter?
Yes. The last ten years (2016–2025) averaged 1.4 °C warmer than 1951–1980 in Edinburgh, faster than the global average of 1.1 °C over the same period (Copernicus ERA5).
Which city will Edinburgh feel like in 2050?
By 2040–2059, Edinburgh's climate is projected to resemble the climate of London, United Kingdom today, based on temperature, heat extremes, frost and rainfall.
What would happen under high emissions?
Under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Edinburgh's average temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at 10.6 °C and the hottest day at about 27 °C. The differences between scenarios grow much larger after 2050.
Sources: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CMIP6 0.25°, ERA5 0.25°); Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis (C3S/ECMWF); NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 (Thrasher et al. 2022); GeoNames
Method: Delta method: ERA5 1995–2014 + CMIP6 ensemble change 2040–2059 vs 1995–2014. Values are for the ~25 km grid cell containing the city and can differ from a single weather station, especially for coastal and mountain cities. Methodology · Download CSV
Licence: Derived from ERA5 (CC BY 4.0, Copernicus/ECMWF), CMIP6 via World Bank CCKP (CC BY-SA 4.0) and GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). City data on this site: CC BY-SA 4.0. · Generated 17 October 2026