Manchester in 2050: climate change in numbers
Manchester has warmed 1.5 °C, comparing the last ten years (2016–2025) with 1951–1980 — faster than the world as a whole (+1.1 °C). By 2050, it is heading for a climate that no large city has today.
2050 = 2040–2059 average, intermediate emissions (SSP2-4.5), median of CMIP6 climate models. “Today” = 1991–2020. Model range for average temperature: 9.8–11.3 °C.
Manchester: average annual temperature, 1950–2025 (°C)
1950 → 2025. Manchester's warming stripes: each stripe is one year's average temperature.
What Manchester's climate will feel like
We compared Manchester's projected 2050 climate with today's climate in more than 1,000 large cities. None is a close match; the nearest is Hamburg, Germany. Scientists call this a novel climate: conditions the city's people, buildings and infrastructure have no local experience of.
| Manchester today | Manchester 2050 | Hamburg today | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average temperature | 9.4 °C | 10.6 °C | 9.6 °C |
| Average daily high | 12.5 °C | 13.7 °C | 13.1 °C |
| Hottest day | 27 °C | 29 °C | 33 °C |
| Frost days | 40 | 31 | 61 |
| Rainfall | 1,061 mm | 1,033 mm | 806 mm |
A year in Manchester, day by day
Each square is one day of the year; the coloured squares are the days that cross the threshold in an average year.
Frost days in Manchester (below 0 °C)
What changes by 2050
- The average temperature rises a further 1.1 °C compared with 1991–2020 (model range 0.3–1.8 °C).
- Frost days fall from about 40 to 31 a year: shorter, milder winters.
Dangerous heat in Manchester
Even by 2090 under very high emissions, Manchester is not projected to have days with a heat index of 39 °C or more in a typical year. See where dangerous heat spreads worldwide.
Under high emissions
If emissions keep rising (SSP5-8.5), Manchester would average 10.8 °C by 2040–2059, with a hottest day around 29 °C. By mid-century the scenarios are still close; the choices made now mostly decide what happens after 2050 — see the world in 2050.
More places
Compare Manchester with…Climate change in the United KingdomLondonDublinEdinburghAmsterdam
Frequently asked questions
How hot will Manchester be in 2050?
Under an intermediate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), Manchester's average annual temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at about 10.6 °C (range 9.8–11.3 °C across climate models), compared with 9.4 °C in 1991–2020. The hottest day of a typical year reaches about 29 °C (84 °F).
Is Manchester getting hotter?
Yes. The last ten years (2016–2025) averaged 1.5 °C warmer than 1951–1980 in Manchester, faster than the global average of 1.1 °C over the same period (Copernicus ERA5).
Which city will Manchester feel like in 2050?
No large city today has a climate quite like Manchester's projected 2050 climate. The closest match is Hamburg, Germany, but the fit is loose — Manchester is heading into a climate with no close equivalent among the world's large cities.
What would happen under high emissions?
Under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Manchester's average temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at 10.8 °C and the hottest day at about 29 °C. The differences between scenarios grow much larger after 2050.
Sources: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CMIP6 0.25°, ERA5 0.25°); Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis (C3S/ECMWF); NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 (Thrasher et al. 2022); GeoNames
Method: Delta method: ERA5 1995–2014 + CMIP6 ensemble change 2040–2059 vs 1995–2014. Values are for the ~25 km grid cell containing the city and can differ from a single weather station, especially for coastal and mountain cities. Methodology · Download CSV
Licence: Derived from ERA5 (CC BY 4.0, Copernicus/ECMWF), CMIP6 via World Bank CCKP (CC BY-SA 4.0) and GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). City data on this site: CC BY-SA 4.0. · Generated 17 October 2026