Bogota in 2050: climate change in numbers
Bogota has warmed 0.7 °C, comparing the last ten years (2016–2025) with 1951–1980 — slower than the world as a whole (+1.1 °C). By 2050, its climate is projected to feel like Arequipa, Peru today.
2050 = 2040–2059 average, intermediate emissions (SSP2-4.5), median of CMIP6 climate models. “Today” = 1991–2020. Model range for average temperature: 13.9–15.0 °C.
Bogota: average annual temperature, 1950–2025 (°C)
1950 → 2025. Bogota's warming stripes: each stripe is one year's average temperature.
What Bogota's climate will feel like
Matching temperature, heat extremes, frost days and rainfall against the current climate of more than 1,000 large cities, Bogota's 2050 climate is closest to Arequipa, Peru — about 2,400 km away.
| Bogota today | Bogota 2050 | Arequipa today | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average temperature | 13.0 °C | 14.3 °C | 13.4 °C |
| Average daily high | 17.7 °C | 19.2 °C | 19.0 °C |
| Hottest day | 21 °C | 24 °C | 24 °C |
| Frost days | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rainfall | 1,098 mm | 1,072 mm | 801 mm |
A year in Bogota, day by day
Each square is one day of the year; the coloured squares are the days that cross the threshold in an average year.
What changes by 2050
- The average temperature rises a further 1.3 °C compared with 1991–2020 (model range 0.9–2.0 °C).
Dangerous heat in Bogota
Even by 2090 under very high emissions, Bogota is not projected to have days with a heat index of 39 °C or more in a typical year. See where dangerous heat spreads worldwide.
Under high emissions
If emissions keep rising (SSP5-8.5), Bogota would average 14.9 °C by 2040–2059, with a hottest day around 24 °C. By mid-century the scenarios are still close; the choices made now mostly decide what happens after 2050 — see the world in 2050.
More places
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Frequently asked questions
How hot will Bogota be in 2050?
Under an intermediate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), Bogota's average annual temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at about 14.3 °C (range 13.9–15.0 °C across climate models), compared with 13.0 °C in 1991–2020. The hottest day of a typical year reaches about 24 °C (75 °F).
Is Bogota getting hotter?
Yes. The last ten years (2016–2025) averaged 0.7 °C warmer than 1951–1980 in Bogota, slower than the global average of 1.1 °C over the same period (Copernicus ERA5).
Which city will Bogota feel like in 2050?
By 2040–2059, Bogota's climate is projected to resemble the climate of Arequipa, Peru today, based on temperature, heat extremes, frost and rainfall.
What would happen under high emissions?
Under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Bogota's average temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at 14.9 °C and the hottest day at about 24 °C. The differences between scenarios grow much larger after 2050.
Sources: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CMIP6 0.25°, ERA5 0.25°); Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis (C3S/ECMWF); NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 (Thrasher et al. 2022); GeoNames
Method: Delta method: ERA5 1995–2014 + CMIP6 ensemble change 2040–2059 vs 1995–2014. Values are for the ~25 km grid cell containing the city and can differ from a single weather station, especially for coastal and mountain cities. Methodology · Download CSV
Licence: Derived from ERA5 (CC BY 4.0, Copernicus/ECMWF), CMIP6 via World Bank CCKP (CC BY-SA 4.0) and GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). City data on this site: CC BY-SA 4.0. · Generated 17 October 2026