Mexico City in 2050: climate change in numbers
Mexico City has warmed 2.1 °C, comparing the last ten years (2016–2025) with 1951–1980 — faster than the world as a whole (+1.1 °C). By 2050, its climate is projected to feel like Johannesburg, South Africa today.
2050 = 2040–2059 average, intermediate emissions (SSP2-4.5), median of CMIP6 climate models. “Today” = 1991–2020. Model range for average temperature: 15.7–16.5 °C.
Mexico City: average annual temperature, 1950–2025 (°C)
1950 → 2025. Mexico City's warming stripes: each stripe is one year's average temperature.
What Mexico City's climate will feel like
Matching temperature, heat extremes, frost days and rainfall against the current climate of more than 1,000 large cities, Mexico City's 2050 climate is closest to Johannesburg, South Africa — about 14,600 km away.
| Mexico City today | Mexico City 2050 | Johannesburg today | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average temperature | 14.7 °C | 16.2 °C | 16.1 °C |
| Average daily high | 21.9 °C | 23.6 °C | 22.9 °C |
| Hottest day | 29 °C | 31 °C | 32 °C |
| Frost days | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| Rainfall | 1,045 mm | 1,005 mm | 791 mm |
A year in Mexico City, day by day
Each square is one day of the year; the coloured squares are the days that cross the threshold in an average year.
Days above 30 °C (86 °F) in Mexico City
What changes by 2050
- The average temperature rises a further 1.4 °C compared with 1991–2020 (model range 1.0–1.8 °C).
- Days above 30 °C (86 °F) stay relatively rare: about 1 a year today and 3 by 2040–2059.
Dangerous heat in Mexico City
Even by 2090 under very high emissions, Mexico City is not projected to have days with a heat index of 39 °C or more in a typical year. See where dangerous heat spreads worldwide.
Under high emissions
If emissions keep rising (SSP5-8.5), Mexico City would average 16.7 °C by 2040–2059, with a hottest day around 33 °C and 7 days above 30 °C (86 °F) a year. By mid-century the scenarios are still close; the choices made now mostly decide what happens after 2050 — see the world in 2050.
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Frequently asked questions
How hot will Mexico City be in 2050?
Under an intermediate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), Mexico City's average annual temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at about 16.2 °C (range 15.7–16.5 °C across climate models), compared with 14.7 °C in 1991–2020. The hottest day of a typical year reaches about 31 °C (89 °F).
Is Mexico City getting hotter?
Yes. The last ten years (2016–2025) averaged 2.1 °C warmer than 1951–1980 in Mexico City, faster than the global average of 1.1 °C over the same period (Copernicus ERA5).
Which city will Mexico City feel like in 2050?
By 2040–2059, Mexico City's climate is projected to resemble the climate of Johannesburg, South Africa today, based on temperature, heat extremes, frost and rainfall.
What would happen under high emissions?
Under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Mexico City's average temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at 16.7 °C and the hottest day at about 33 °C. The differences between scenarios grow much larger after 2050.
Sources: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CMIP6 0.25°, ERA5 0.25°); Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis (C3S/ECMWF); NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 (Thrasher et al. 2022); GeoNames
Method: Delta method: ERA5 1995–2014 + CMIP6 ensemble change 2040–2059 vs 1995–2014. Values are for the ~25 km grid cell containing the city and can differ from a single weather station, especially for coastal and mountain cities. Methodology · Download CSV
Licence: Derived from ERA5 (CC BY 4.0, Copernicus/ECMWF), CMIP6 via World Bank CCKP (CC BY-SA 4.0) and GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). City data on this site: CC BY-SA 4.0. · Generated 17 October 2026