Phoenix in 2050: climate change in numbers
Phoenix has warmed 2.0 °C, comparing the last ten years (2016–2025) with 1951–1980 — faster than the world as a whole (+1.1 °C). By 2050, its climate is projected to feel like Multan, Pakistan today.
2050 = 2040–2059 average, intermediate emissions (SSP2-4.5), median of CMIP6 climate models. “Today” = 1991–2020. Model range for average temperature: 24.5–25.7 °C.
Phoenix: average annual temperature, 1950–2025 (°C)
1950 → 2025. Phoenix's warming stripes: each stripe is one year's average temperature.
What Phoenix's climate will feel like
Matching temperature, heat extremes, frost days and rainfall against the current climate of more than 1,000 large cities, Phoenix's 2050 climate is closest to Multan, Pakistan — about 12,900 km away.
| Phoenix today | Phoenix 2050 | Multan today | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average temperature | 23.3 °C | 25.2 °C | 26.1 °C |
| Average daily high | 30.6 °C | 32.6 °C | 32.4 °C |
| Hottest day | 46 °C | 47 °C | 46 °C |
| Frost days | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rainfall | 260 mm | 241 mm | 315 mm |
A year in Phoenix, day by day
Each square is one day of the year; the coloured squares are the days that cross the threshold in an average year.
Days above 35 °C (95 °F) in Phoenix
Tropical nights in Phoenix (never cooler than 20 °C)
Dangerous-heat days in Phoenix (heat index ≥ 39 °C)
What changes by 2050
- The average temperature rises a further 1.9 °C compared with 1991–2020 (model range 1.3–2.4 °C).
- Days above 35 °C (95 °F) rise from about 141 a year (1991–2020) to about 161 by 2040–2059.
- Tropical nights — when it never cools below 20 °C — increase from about 139 to 161 a year, making heatwaves harder on health.
- Annual rainfall is projected to increase by about 7%, though precipitation projections are less certain than temperature.
Dangerous heat in Phoenix
Days a year when the heat index — temperature and humidity combined — reaches 39 °C, the level the US National Weather Service calls Danger: 0 in 1995–2014, 14 by 2050 and 27 by 2090 under intermediate emissions, or 65 by 2090 if emissions keep rising. See where dangerous heat spreads worldwide.
Under high emissions
If emissions keep rising (SSP5-8.5), Phoenix would average 25.6 °C by 2040–2059, with a hottest day around 48 °C and 168 days above 35 °C (95 °F) a year. By mid-century the scenarios are still close; the choices made now mostly decide what happens after 2050 — see the world in 2050.
More places
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Frequently asked questions
How hot will Phoenix be in 2050?
Under an intermediate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), Phoenix's average annual temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at about 25.2 °C (range 24.5–25.7 °C across climate models), compared with 23.3 °C in 1991–2020. The hottest day of a typical year reaches about 47 °C (117 °F).
Is Phoenix getting hotter?
Yes. The last ten years (2016–2025) averaged 2.0 °C warmer than 1951–1980 in Phoenix, faster than the global average of 1.1 °C over the same period (Copernicus ERA5).
Which city will Phoenix feel like in 2050?
By 2040–2059, Phoenix's climate is projected to resemble the climate of Multan, Pakistan today, based on temperature, heat extremes, frost and rainfall.
What would happen under high emissions?
Under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Phoenix's average temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at 25.6 °C and the hottest day at about 48 °C. The differences between scenarios grow much larger after 2050.
Sources: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CMIP6 0.25°, ERA5 0.25°); Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis (C3S/ECMWF); NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 (Thrasher et al. 2022); GeoNames
Method: Delta method: ERA5 1995–2014 + CMIP6 ensemble change 2040–2059 vs 1995–2014. Values are for the ~25 km grid cell containing the city and can differ from a single weather station, especially for coastal and mountain cities. Methodology · Download CSV
Licence: Derived from ERA5 (CC BY 4.0, Copernicus/ECMWF), CMIP6 via World Bank CCKP (CC BY-SA 4.0) and GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). City data on this site: CC BY-SA 4.0. · Generated 17 October 2026