San Francisco in 2050: climate change in numbers
San Francisco has warmed 0.8 °C, comparing the last ten years (2016–2025) with 1951–1980 — slower than the world as a whole (+1.1 °C). By 2050, its climate is projected to feel like Cape Town, South Africa today.
2050 = 2040–2059 average, intermediate emissions (SSP2-4.5), median of CMIP6 climate models. “Today” = 1991–2020. Model range for average temperature: 13.9–15.2 °C.
San Francisco: average annual temperature, 1950–2025 (°C)
1950 → 2025. San Francisco's warming stripes: each stripe is one year's average temperature.
What San Francisco's climate will feel like
Matching temperature, heat extremes, frost days and rainfall against the current climate of more than 1,000 large cities, San Francisco's 2050 climate is closest to Cape Town, South Africa — about 16,500 km away.
| San Francisco today | San Francisco 2050 | Cape Town today | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average temperature | 13.2 °C | 14.4 °C | 16.5 °C |
| Average daily high | 16.5 °C | 17.6 °C | 18.9 °C |
| Hottest day | 28 °C | 30 °C | 28 °C |
| Frost days | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rainfall | 585 mm | 633 mm | 625 mm |
A year in San Francisco, day by day
Each square is one day of the year; the coloured squares are the days that cross the threshold in an average year.
What changes by 2050
- The average temperature rises a further 1.1 °C compared with 1991–2020 (model range 0.6–1.9 °C).
- Annual rainfall is projected to increase by about 5%, though precipitation projections are less certain than temperature.
Dangerous heat in San Francisco
Even by 2090 under very high emissions, San Francisco is not projected to have days with a heat index of 39 °C or more in a typical year. See where dangerous heat spreads worldwide.
Sea level at San Francisco
The sea at San Francisco is projected to rise about 19 cm by 2050 and 53 cm by 2100 (IPCC AR6, intermediate emissions). See the full sea level projection for San Francisco.
Under high emissions
If emissions keep rising (SSP5-8.5), San Francisco would average 14.8 °C by 2040–2059, with a hottest day around 30 °C. By mid-century the scenarios are still close; the choices made now mostly decide what happens after 2050 — see the world in 2050.
More places
Compare San Francisco with…Climate change in the United StatesLos AngelesLas VegasPhoenixSeattle
Frequently asked questions
How hot will San Francisco be in 2050?
Under an intermediate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), San Francisco's average annual temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at about 14.4 °C (range 13.9–15.2 °C across climate models), compared with 13.2 °C in 1991–2020. The hottest day of a typical year reaches about 30 °C (85 °F).
Is San Francisco getting hotter?
Yes. The last ten years (2016–2025) averaged 0.8 °C warmer than 1951–1980 in San Francisco, slower than the global average of 1.1 °C over the same period (Copernicus ERA5).
Which city will San Francisco feel like in 2050?
By 2040–2059, San Francisco's climate is projected to resemble the climate of Cape Town, South Africa today, based on temperature, heat extremes, frost and rainfall.
What would happen under high emissions?
Under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), San Francisco's average temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at 14.8 °C and the hottest day at about 30 °C. The differences between scenarios grow much larger after 2050.
Sources: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CMIP6 0.25°, ERA5 0.25°); Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis (C3S/ECMWF); NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 (Thrasher et al. 2022); GeoNames
Method: Delta method: ERA5 1995–2014 + CMIP6 ensemble change 2040–2059 vs 1995–2014. Values are for the ~25 km grid cell containing the city and can differ from a single weather station, especially for coastal and mountain cities. Methodology · Download CSV
Licence: Derived from ERA5 (CC BY 4.0, Copernicus/ECMWF), CMIP6 via World Bank CCKP (CC BY-SA 4.0) and GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). City data on this site: CC BY-SA 4.0. · Generated 17 October 2026