Las Vegas in 2050: climate change in numbers
Las Vegas has warmed 2.0 °C, comparing the last ten years (2016–2025) with 1951–1980 — faster than the world as a whole (+1.1 °C). By 2050, it is heading for a climate that no large city has today.
2050 = 2040–2059 average, intermediate emissions (SSP2-4.5), median of CMIP6 climate models. “Today” = 1991–2020. Model range for average temperature: 19.3–20.5 °C.
Las Vegas: average annual temperature, 1950–2025 (°C)
1950 → 2025. Las Vegas's warming stripes: each stripe is one year's average temperature.
What Las Vegas's climate will feel like
We compared Las Vegas's projected 2050 climate with today's climate in more than 1,000 large cities. None is a close match; the nearest is Aleppo, Syria. Scientists call this a novel climate: conditions the city's people, buildings and infrastructure have no local experience of.
| Las Vegas today | Las Vegas 2050 | Aleppo today | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average temperature | 18.1 °C | 20.0 °C | 18.7 °C |
| Average daily high | 24.6 °C | 26.5 °C | 24.8 °C |
| Hottest day | 41 °C | 44 °C | 42 °C |
| Frost days | 20 | 10 | 13 |
| Rainfall | 159 mm | 158 mm | 334 mm |
A year in Las Vegas, day by day
Each square is one day of the year; the coloured squares are the days that cross the threshold in an average year.
Days above 35 °C (95 °F) in Las Vegas
Tropical nights in Las Vegas (never cooler than 20 °C)
Frost days in Las Vegas (below 0 °C)
What changes by 2050
- The average temperature rises a further 1.8 °C compared with 1991–2020 (model range 1.2–2.3 °C).
- Days above 35 °C (95 °F) rise from about 71 a year (1991–2020) to about 96 by 2040–2059.
- Tropical nights — when it never cools below 20 °C — increase from about 90 to 114 a year, making heatwaves harder on health.
- Frost days fall from about 20 to 10 a year: shorter, milder winters.
- Annual rainfall is projected to increase by about 6%, though precipitation projections are less certain than temperature.
Dangerous heat in Las Vegas
Days a year when the heat index — temperature and humidity combined — reaches 39 °C, the level the US National Weather Service calls Danger: 0 in 1995–2014, 0 by 2050 and 0 by 2090 under intermediate emissions, or 5 by 2090 if emissions keep rising. See where dangerous heat spreads worldwide.
Under high emissions
If emissions keep rising (SSP5-8.5), Las Vegas would average 20.4 °C by 2040–2059, with a hottest day around 45 °C and 102 days above 35 °C (95 °F) a year. By mid-century the scenarios are still close; the choices made now mostly decide what happens after 2050 — see the world in 2050.
More places
Compare Las Vegas with…Climate change in the United StatesLos AngelesPhoenixSan FranciscoDenver
Frequently asked questions
How hot will Las Vegas be in 2050?
Under an intermediate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), Las Vegas's average annual temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at about 20.0 °C (range 19.3–20.5 °C across climate models), compared with 18.1 °C in 1991–2020. The hottest day of a typical year reaches about 44 °C (111 °F).
Is Las Vegas getting hotter?
Yes. The last ten years (2016–2025) averaged 2.0 °C warmer than 1951–1980 in Las Vegas, faster than the global average of 1.1 °C over the same period (Copernicus ERA5).
Which city will Las Vegas feel like in 2050?
No large city today has a climate quite like Las Vegas's projected 2050 climate. The closest match is Aleppo, Syria, but the fit is loose — Las Vegas is heading into a climate with no close equivalent among the world's large cities.
What would happen under high emissions?
Under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Las Vegas's average temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at 20.4 °C and the hottest day at about 45 °C. The differences between scenarios grow much larger after 2050.
Sources: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CMIP6 0.25°, ERA5 0.25°); Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis (C3S/ECMWF); NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 (Thrasher et al. 2022); GeoNames
Method: Delta method: ERA5 1995–2014 + CMIP6 ensemble change 2040–2059 vs 1995–2014. Values are for the ~25 km grid cell containing the city and can differ from a single weather station, especially for coastal and mountain cities. Methodology · Download CSV
Licence: Derived from ERA5 (CC BY 4.0, Copernicus/ECMWF), CMIP6 via World Bank CCKP (CC BY-SA 4.0) and GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). City data on this site: CC BY-SA 4.0. · Generated 17 October 2026