Vancouver in 2050: climate change in numbers
Vancouver has warmed 1.5 °C, comparing the last ten years (2016–2025) with 1951–1980 — faster than the world as a whole (+1.1 °C). By 2050, it is heading for a climate that no large city has today.
2050 = 2040–2059 average, intermediate emissions (SSP2-4.5), median of CMIP6 climate models. “Today” = 1991–2020. Model range for average temperature: 10.5–12.2 °C.
Vancouver: average annual temperature, 1950–2025 (°C)
1950 → 2025. Vancouver's warming stripes: each stripe is one year's average temperature.
What Vancouver's climate will feel like
We compared Vancouver's projected 2050 climate with today's climate in more than 1,000 large cities. None is a close match; the nearest is Liupanshui, China. Scientists call this a novel climate: conditions the city's people, buildings and infrastructure have no local experience of.
| Vancouver today | Vancouver 2050 | Liupanshui today | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average temperature | 9.6 °C | 11.2 °C | 13.1 °C |
| Average daily high | 13.5 °C | 15.0 °C | 17.3 °C |
| Hottest day | 30 °C | 32 °C | 29 °C |
| Frost days | 34 | 19 | 27 |
| Rainfall | 2,352 mm | 2,419 mm | 1,593 mm |
A year in Vancouver, day by day
Each square is one day of the year; the coloured squares are the days that cross the threshold in an average year.
Days above 30 °C (86 °F) in Vancouver
Frost days in Vancouver (below 0 °C)
What changes by 2050
- The average temperature rises a further 1.6 °C compared with 1991–2020 (model range 0.8–2.6 °C).
- Days above 30 °C (86 °F) rise from about 1 a year (1991–2020) to about 6 by 2040–2059.
- Frost days fall from about 34 to 19 a year: shorter, milder winters.
Dangerous heat in Vancouver
Even by 2090 under very high emissions, Vancouver is not projected to have days with a heat index of 39 °C or more in a typical year. See where dangerous heat spreads worldwide.
Sea level at Vancouver
The sea at Vancouver is projected to rise about 9 cm by 2050 and 33 cm by 2100 (IPCC AR6, intermediate emissions). See the full sea level projection for Vancouver.
Under high emissions
If emissions keep rising (SSP5-8.5), Vancouver would average 11.6 °C by 2040–2059, with a hottest day around 33 °C and 8 days above 30 °C (86 °F) a year. By mid-century the scenarios are still close; the choices made now mostly decide what happens after 2050 — see the world in 2050.
More places
Compare Vancouver with…Climate change in CanadaSeattleSan FranciscoLas VegasLos Angeles
Frequently asked questions
How hot will Vancouver be in 2050?
Under an intermediate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), Vancouver's average annual temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at about 11.2 °C (range 10.5–12.2 °C across climate models), compared with 9.6 °C in 1991–2020. The hottest day of a typical year reaches about 32 °C (90 °F).
Is Vancouver getting hotter?
Yes. The last ten years (2016–2025) averaged 1.5 °C warmer than 1951–1980 in Vancouver, faster than the global average of 1.1 °C over the same period (Copernicus ERA5).
Which city will Vancouver feel like in 2050?
No large city today has a climate quite like Vancouver's projected 2050 climate. The closest match is Liupanshui, China, but the fit is loose — Vancouver is heading into a climate with no close equivalent among the world's large cities.
What would happen under high emissions?
Under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Vancouver's average temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at 11.6 °C and the hottest day at about 33 °C. The differences between scenarios grow much larger after 2050.
Sources: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CMIP6 0.25°, ERA5 0.25°); Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis (C3S/ECMWF); NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 (Thrasher et al. 2022); GeoNames
Method: Delta method: ERA5 1995–2014 + CMIP6 ensemble change 2040–2059 vs 1995–2014. Values are for the ~25 km grid cell containing the city and can differ from a single weather station, especially for coastal and mountain cities. Methodology · Download CSV
Licence: Derived from ERA5 (CC BY 4.0, Copernicus/ECMWF), CMIP6 via World Bank CCKP (CC BY-SA 4.0) and GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). City data on this site: CC BY-SA 4.0. · Generated 17 October 2026